Donald Trump isn't exactly known for being a passive observer. Now, with the smoke still literally clearing over Tehran, he’s made it clear he doesn't plan on sitting out the biggest power vacuum in the Middle East since 1979. Following the strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, Trump told reporters he needs to be "involved" in choosing the successor. It’s a bold, some might say jarring, move that tosses decades of "regime change" denial out the window.
You’d think a country's leadership transition would be an internal affair. Not in Trump’s playbook. He’s already trashing the frontrunners, specifically calling Mojtaba Khamenei—the late leader's son—a "lightweight." To Trump, the idea of a dynastic succession in the Islamic Republic is "unacceptable." He wants someone who will bring "harmony and peace," which basically translates to someone who won't build nukes or fund proxies that keep the U.S. military busy.
The Venezuela Blueprint in the Middle East
If you want to understand how Trump views this, look south. He’s explicitly comparing the situation in Iran to his recent intervention in Venezuela. After the U.S. operation to capture Nicolás Maduro earlier this year, Trump had a heavy hand in seeing Delcy Rodríguez take the reins. He sees that as a success story.
"I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy in Venezuela," Trump said during a phone interview with Axios. It’s a direct admission that the "regime change" label—one his own administration officials like Pete Hegseth and Marco Rubio have been dodging for weeks—is very much on the table for the man in the Oval Office.
The logic is simple. If the U.S. and Israel just spent a week hammering Iran’s nuclear sites, navy, and leadership, Trump doesn't want to have to do it again in five years. He’s looking for a "settlement" that sticks. To get that, he believes he needs a seat at the table when the Assembly of Experts meets to pick the next Supreme Leader.
Why Mojtaba Khamenei is a No-Go
For years, Mojtaba Khamenei has been the shadow man of Iranian politics. He’s 56, has deep ties to the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard), and has been groomed by his father to take over. But Trump isn't impressed. He’s called Mojtaba "incompetent" and "unacceptable."
The problem for the U.S. is that Mojtaba represents the status quo. He’s a hardliner. If he takes over, the ideology of the 1979 revolution stays intact. Trump’s goal is to break that cycle. He wants "someone from within" who is "currently popular" but willing to play ball with the West.
The issue? Most of the people the U.S. actually liked are, in Trump's own words, "dead." The strikes didn't just hit the Supreme Leader; they wiped out a significant portion of the old guard. This has created a "third wave" of potential leaders that even the intelligence community is still scrambling to profile.
The Reality of the Power Vacuum
Right now, Iran is being run by an Interim Leadership Council. This group includes:
- Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i (Chief Justice)
- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Parliament Speaker)
- Masoud Pezeshkian (President)
These guys are effectively keeping the lights on while the Assembly of Experts tries to figure out how to meet without getting bombed. Israel has already hit the building in Qom where the clerical body meets, a clear signal that the selection process itself is a military target.
Trump’s insistence on being involved isn't just talk. It’s a warning. He told Politico that if they don't pick someone acceptable, "they're not going to have any settlement." That implies the strikes won't stop until Washington likes the name on the door.
Can the U.S. Actually Pick a Supreme Leader
Let’s be real. It’s one thing to say you want to be involved; it’s another to actually influence a group of 88 hardline Shiite clerics who view the U.S. as "The Great Satan."
The Atlantic Council points out that Washington’s levers are actually pretty limited. Unless there’s a full-scale ground invasion—which Trump has called a "waste of time"—the U.S. can't force a vote. What they can do is offer a "pathway out."
- Sanctions Relief: Iran’s economy is in the gutter. A new leader who wants to avoid a total collapse needs access to global markets.
- Security Guarantees: If the new leader agrees to stop the nuclear program and drop support for groups like Hezbollah, the U.S. could theoretically stop the bombing.
- Immunity: Trump has already hinted at "immunity" for the Iranian people if they help take back their country. He might extend that to certain regime technocrats who are willing to pivot.
What Happens Next
We’re in uncharted territory. The "Velayat-e Faqih" system—the rule of the supreme cleric—is more fragile than it’s ever been. There’s a non-zero chance that the country moves toward a military takeover by the IRGC or even a constitutional referendum that scraps the Supreme Leader role entirely.
Trump isn't waiting for the dust to settle to make his move. He’s already ruled out a return of the Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, as a serious contender, favoring someone "from within" who can keep the peace.
If you're watching this unfold, don't look for a traditional diplomatic process. Look for more "maximum pressure" combined with high-stakes, behind-the-scenes signaling. Trump wants a deal, but he wants it on his terms, with a leader he’s personally vetted. Whether the clerics in Qom agree is another story entirely.
Keep an eye on the Interim Council’s next moves. If they start floating names like Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini, watch how the White House reacts. That’ll tell you exactly how "involved" Trump really is.
